Humiliated by the United States and threatened by China, European leaders are meeting in Slovenia on Tuesday to decide on a common course of action.
Awithdrawal from Afghanistan which turns into a nightmare, an Anglo-Saxon alliance in the Indo-Pacific which turns into betrayal , a pandemic which keeps the continents further apart every day ... After four years of an aggressive Trump presidency, the 'Europe expected to regain some stability on the international scene with Joe Biden at the head of the United States. But, at the end of a summer 2021 topsy-turvy, all European certainties have shattered and the Old Continent finds itself, more than ever, prisoner of the clash between China and the United States.
A geopolitical turning point for Europe
For the first time since the Afghan debacle and the Australian submarine affair, European leaders will meet from October 5 in Slovenia. Around an informal dinner at Bro Castle on Tuesday, the twenty-seven heads of state must reflect on the place of the European Union in the world in these times of strategic upheaval. " The Australian submarine affair constitutes a geopolitical turning point," said Philippe Le Corre, associate researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for Peace and specialist in relations between China and Europe. Before the summer, the idea was necessary to a common front of Western democracies in the face of authoritarian regimes such as China and Russia.
With the Biden presidency and its ambiguous attitude, Europe understands that foreign policy under Donald Trump was not a parenthesis, but a new reality: the "Asian pivot" of the United States relegates the Old Continent to the background. the international scene, as shown by the AUKUS alliance (Australia, United Kingdom, United States) concluded in the Indo-Pacific, last month. "This agreement, made behind the backs of Paris and Brussels, gives the impression that Europe is of no importance, at least in military terms," said Ricardo Borges de Castro, deputy director of the European Policy Center. The head of American diplomacy, the French-speaking Antony Blinken, is currently in Paris to reweave strongly damaged transatlantic links because, in the perspective of their confrontation with China, the United States is still trying to unite its allies ...
For the first time in many months, relations with Beijing will be on the menu of European discussions in Slovenia. Described as a "systemic rival" by the EU two years ago, China had yet signed a comprehensive investment agreement with the European Commission last December, when Joe Biden had just been elected. "The United States took this signature very badly when the new administration was not yet installed in the White House, recalls Philippe Le Corre. The Biden government had to rethink its alliances, preferring to focus on the 'five eyes' (United Kingdom, Australia, Canada, New Zealand) and relegating France and Germany to second-tier partners. "
In the face of China, contradictory European interests
If diplomatic quarrels have multiplied in recent months between Brussels and Washington, the Twenty-Seven are far from dropping the transatlantic alliance, as reaffirmed by the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, on October 4. "We will always be closer to Washington than to Beijing, that goes without saying because we share the same political system, the same economic system, explained the Spanish diplomat during the World Policy Conference in Dubai. But we also have our own interests, which we must be able to defend. "
But here too, each European country defends its own interests, which are often contradictory with those of its European neighbors. Thus, a common line against the Chinese giant remains extremely complex to establish between the Hungary of Viktor Orban, which is crumbling under the investments of Beijing, and Lithuania, which froze its trade relations with China after the establishment of a delegation. permanent in Taiwan. Enough to fuel long discussions at the Slovenian castle dinner, and beyond.
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